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Weather Lore & Weather Facts

A hand-drawn weather map of the northeastern United States and mid-Atlantic region, with gray state outlines, blue snow symbols, a sun and cloud icon, arrows, and the word 'SNOW' on a textured off-white background.

"Everyone talks about the weather, but nobody does anything about it." Often attributed to Mark Twain, this quote most likely comes from one of Twain's best friends and fellow writer Charles Dudley Warner. There's much truth in this observation. If you're waiting in line at the Mast Store, the weather is one of the easiest topics to broach with a stranger.  

We all want to know what the weather holds, so we'll know if we need a rain jacket or a parka. Is the weekend going to be good for a picnic and a hike, or should we pick up another puzzle to put together during a rainstorm? Surprisingly, the ability to predict the weather with any degree of accuracy is less than a century old.  

A Short History of Meteorology  

Early weather prognosticators would look for signs to know what the next few days might hold. Around 650 B.C.E., Babylonians looked to the clouds and other sight-based phenomena, like halos, to make their predictions. The Chinese divided their year into 24 "festivals" around 300 B.C.E. Each festival was linked to a different type of weather.  

Black and white illustration of a landscape with a tree, sun, and celestial elements.

An illustration from Camille Flammarion's L'atmosphère: météorologie populaire, which was published in 1888.

Aristotle penned his Meteorologica around 340 B.C.E. As one of the most respected scientists and philosophers in the world, this compilation consisting of four books – three on meteorology and one on chemistry – contained not only his observations but also those of other Ancient Greeks, including poets, historians, and philosophers. Remember, Aristotle believed that the earth and all beings were composed of four elements – water, wind, fire, and earth. His book was the basis of modern meteorology in Western Civilization until the 17th century (WOW!). 

During the Age of Enlightenment, instruments to measure properties that influence the weather were developed. The hygrometer measured humidity in the air; thermometers could tell us the temperature; and the barometer gauged the barometric pressure. OK, so now we're getting somewhere.  

Technology continued to improve alongside the science of meteorology, but here's a development I bet you didn't expect to influence weather predictions. The telegraph. Better – and faster – communication allowed weather observers to compile rudimentary maps for further study. Weather observation centers began popping up across the world.  

Another big breakthrough happened in the 1920s when the radiosonde was invented. Basically, a small box is filled with weather-measuring equipment and a transmitter to be carried into the atmosphere by a balloon. As the equipment gains altitude, it sends information on temperature, moisture, and winds back to the ground station. These observations are used to construct weather maps and to create weather models.  

Also in the 1920s, it was proposed that weather predictions could be made by solving a variety of mathematical equations. Get ready for some big numbers here... A British mathematician, Lewis Fry Richardson, took the formulas, spent several months calculating, and came up with a wildly inaccurate (and impossible) prediction of weather for the next six hours. He postulated in his book Prediction by Numerical Process that predicting weather before it actually happens could be done IF you had human computers in a large room all working to solve different parts of the equation and passing their results on to the next part of the room. The number of calculators needed IN ONE ROOM to make the predictions possible... 64,000! Possible, yes. Practical, no. 

In the late 1940s, some of the most advanced modern computers were applied to solving the mathematical equations to predict the weather. By the mid-1950s, numerical forecasts for 24-hour cycles were being made on a regular basis.  

Fast forward to today, dozens of weather-related satellites orbit the Earth. Combine those with hundreds of satellites observing oceans, climate, and atmospheric conditions, and the data available to predict weather is abundant, moving forecasts from an "art" to a data-driven science. 

Fun-casting 

Each year, the Mast Store tracks the number of fogs in August by putting a bean in a jar. Each bean represents a snow in the coming winter. While our friends at North Carolina's Weather Authority will share that there is no statistical correlation between the fogs in August and snows in winter, we still believe there is some accuracy in it.  

Before satellites, computers, and weather balloons, the only weather predictions available to people were the ones they could observe themselves. Somewhere along the way, someone asserted that fogs in August had a tie to snow, and the practice began. It traveled from Europe, across the ocean, and into the hills and hollers of the Appalachian Mountains.  

Now, there are some criteria for a bean to be put in and taken out of the jar. Fogs hanging around in the tree branches don't count. It has to touch the ground – after all, that's where the snow's going to be. And to remove a bean to account for a snow, there has to be enough accumulation to track a rabbit. Multi-day snows count as one bean as long as there isn't a period of clear skies and no precipitation. This year's prediction of snows is 19. 

A close-up outdoor shot of a person's hands holding a fuzzy Woolly Worm on their palm, with a large gray rock in the background.

That brings us to the Fall season's next predictor – the Woolly Worm. Legend has it – again from our European ancestors – that the woolly worm's 13 segments correspond to the 13 weeks of winter. Reading the segments, based on their colors which range from black to copper, will foretell the weather for each week of winter. A black band holds cold and snow, and a brown or copper band means the weather will be mild.  

The tradition of reading the woolly worm's bands is celebrated each year in the small town of Banner Elk, located just a short drive up the Valle mountain from the Original Mast Store. The Woolly Worm Festival marked its 49th happening this year (2026,  a ceremonial racing of the worms by first responders was held in 2024 because of damage from Hurricane Helene). From humble beginnings in 1978 – 3 vendors and 60-some worms raced – to today with dozens of heats, stables where you can purchase a worm if you don't have your own, 160+ vendors, and more than 20,000 people over the two days of the festival, it's more than predicting the weather; the woolly worm is an economic force.  

The founder of the festival, Jim Morton, wanted to find a way to pick a "trusted worm" to provide the winter's forecast. 

Noticing that woolly worms liked climbing blades of grass, the festival organizers substituted strings and raced worms to determine the trusted worm for each year's forecast. The winning worm on Saturday is the lucky one to make the winter weather prediction. Wally, this year's winner, predicts a cold and snowy start to winter. The middle is mostly average, with a short time – Week 4 – where temperatures will be below average with snow or frost, and the end will be below average with snow or frost.  

Listen to the Old Wives 

Many legends and old sayings we hear contain an element of truth. We visited with local weather legend Ray Russell to investigate a few weather sayings. Some, indeed, do have science to back them up. 

An aged paper mule barometer card with printed instructions, a line drawing of a donkey, and pharmacy addresses from Boone Drug Co. and Deerfield Pharmacy, placed on a dark wooden surface.Our conversation started with a little reminiscing about another local legend Joe Miller. He was known locally as a pharmacist and shenaniganist, but people across the world knew him as the face and founder of Cheap Joe's Art Stuff. 

"There was a little promotional card in my welcome basket when I moved to Boone to teach at Appalachian State University," shared Ray. "It was a 'mule barometer.' It has a drawing of a mule with a twine tail through it, along with directions on how to 'read' it." We both chuckled about that. Some of its instructions include: if the tail is wet, it's raining; if the tail is moving; it's windy. "I wish I had some of his bottled air that was cut by the Boone windmill." 

One of the most recited rhymes for weather is "Red skies at night, sailors delight. Red skies in the morning, ships and sailors take warning." Ray said there is some real science behind this one.  

"Weather systems typically move from west to east, so when bad weather – rain, snow – is coming, there is more moisture to reflect light, producing red or orange skies. As the weather front moves through to the east, a sunset will be red because higher pressure and less moisture is moving in," said Ray. 

What about a ring around the moon predicting rain or snow? We were sometimes told that counting the stars visible within the ring would tell you when to expect the precipitation.  

A dramatic winter sunrise landscape with a snow-covered hillside, rustic wooden fence posts, bare trees, and a vivid orange, pink, and purple sky."I'm not sure about counting the stars, but the halo around the moon is a weather indicator," shared Ray. "Usually that means you'll have a weather change and precipitation in 24 hours. It's caused by ice crystals forming in the highest altitudes, and the halo is formed by the moon's light reflecting through the crystals like a rainbow." 

Can cows really predict rain? When driving by a pasture in the summertime, you might see cattle lying down in the field. A short time later, there will be a shower or days filled with rain. 

"This one has some science behind it, too," said Ray. "A sudden drop in barometric pressure, which is associated with precipitation, signals cattle the need to rest." 

Why do leaves turn over before it rains? If you're outside during the summer months, you might notice that leaves will show their undersides before the rain starts.  

"I'm not quite sure on this one," answered Ray, "but it could be because wind or breezes make the air a little more unsettled to do that." 

As kids looking for a snow day, we'd walk outside and hope to see smoke going to the ground as an indicator of that possibility.  

"Smoke going to the ground really can be an indicator of coming precipitation," said Ray. "When the air is filled with more moisture and barometric pressure is falling, the air becomes less buoyant, which reduces the upward motion of smoke." 

We didn't ask about crickets, but he added that these insects can tell the temperature. "It's based on Dolbear's Law. The chirps of a cricket increase as the temperature rises, so count the number of chirps in 14 seconds, and then add 40 to get a reasonably accurate read on the local temperature."  

Ray, of RaysWeather.com, became interested in weather as a youngster. He was inspired by his local television meteorologist Bob Olvertini. "He was cool," said Ray. "I read every book I could find about weather. Then, in the 1990s, when weather became a thing on the internet, I started doing my own forecasts." His hobby while a professor of computer science at Appalachian State University has become his business. Ray's Weather has weather stations running from Southwestern Virginia to Southwestern North Carolina, makes local forecasts for our region, and employs five professional meteorologists.   

Weather Predicting for your Porch 

It can be fun to make your own weather observations, apply the appropriate tale, and check them against a professional meteorologist's modeled forecast. Here's another one to add to your toolkit.  

The Davis Weather Stick is a real weather tool! It is made from a balsam fir twig and acts as a natural hygrometer, which measures the relative humidity in the air. The wood fibers on either side of the stick absorb humidity at different rates, allowing it to rise when there is lower humidity and lower when rain, snow, or other foul weather approaches.  

Weather Sticks are available at the Mast Store. When installing them, allow time for it to acclimate to your area before relying on its forecast.  

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